College football season is quickly approaching, and in just over three weeks the 2011 season will kick off with numerous teams starting on Thursday night, September 1st. This offseason has seemed to drag on forever with all the turmoil and allegations spread out among many different programs. But, now, we can put all that in the rearview and focus on the upcoming season.
Last year, I covered the 2010 Heisman race exclusively at Sports Nickel, and now with the expansion, I’m going to be doing the same thing here at Breaking Tackles.
In December, the Heisman trust will be handing out the 77th annual Heisman Memorial Trophy to college football’s most outstanding player. In this article, I’m going to give you my 10 favorites to win the award, and tell you why each can win the award, and why nine of them won’t, ultimately leading to my projected winner of the 2011 Heisman.
This is a very difficult award to predict; especially considering the last two Heisman winners – Auburn’s Cam Newton and Alabama’s Mark Ingram – weren’t on anybody’s preseason watch list. They both came out of nowhere to win the stiff-arm trophy, and it’s going to be interesting to see which player is going to come out of nowhere this season and thrust themselves into the race.
I’m just hoping my pick is better than last season. At this point last year, I picked Ohio State QB Terrelle Pryor to win the Heisman, and my pick looked good for a little while, but he ultimately wasn’t even among the four finalists invited to the Downtown Athletic Club.
Here are my 10 favorites to take the trophy, and my pick to hoist the 25-pound cast bronze trophy this December.
Andrew Luck is the preseason favorite to win the Heisman.
Andrew Luck (QB/Stanford)
Andrew Luck is opening the season as the preseason favorite to win the Heisman after finishing 2nd behind Cam Newton last season. Luck was spectacular in 2010, helping lead the Cardinal to their best season in program history. Stanford won 12 games and blasted Virginia Tech in the Orange Bowl, with their only loss of the season coming to National runner-up Oregon.
Despite losing 2009’s Heisman runner-up Toby Gerhart, Stanford was better thanks to the play of Luck. He threw for 3338 yards with 45 touchdowns, and only 8 interceptions. Luck surprised most by opting to return to Palo Alto for his redshirt junior season, despite the fact that he was almost certainly going to be the #1 pick in last April’s draft.
Why he can win: Luck was just a sophomore last season, and he’s almost certainly going to be better this year. He lost some weapons at receiver in Ryan Whalen and Doug Baldwin, but Chris Owunsu is healthy again and he should be Luck’s top target. He’ll also benefit from having a strong running game with Stepfan Taylor leading the ground attack following an 1100+ yard year in 2010.
Losing Jim Harbaugh could be tough, but Luck will benefit from playing in the same offensive system with offensive coordinator David Shaw
being promoted to head coach. If Luck has an even better season than 2010, then it’s going to be hard to deny him the Heisman unless someone else has a transcendent year.
Why he won’t win: How many times as the preseason favorite actually won the award? The fact that the last two Heisman winners have seemingly came out of nowhere makes it hard for me to predict Andrew Luck as the 2011 Heisman winner.
Along with that, Luck benefited greatly from playing behind arguably the nation’s best offensive line in 2010. That offensive line has to be rebuilt with three new starters coming to the forefront. I’m also fully expecting Stanford to take a minor step back this season. I find it unlikely that they win 12 games for a second straight year, and that could also hurt Luck’s chances of winning the Heisman.
LaMichael James (RB/Oregon)
LaMichael James finished right behind Andrew Luck in 3rd place in last season’s Heisman voting. The junior from Texarkana is coming off a brilliant sophomore campaign where he helped lead the Ducks to a Pac-10 title and a berth in the BCS National Championship game.
James, even after sitting out the season opener against New Mexico serving a one-game suspension handed down by head coach Chip Kelly, rushed for 1731 yards on 294 carries with 21 touchdowns. He had nine games in which he ran for 100 yards, and he eclipsed 200 yards on the ground three times.
Why he can win: Oregon’s offense was virtually unstoppable in 2010, and it figures to be once again in 2011. Ducks QB Darron Thomas ran the spread option to near perfection last season, and James will benefit from Thomas having a year of experience under his belt as the starter.
James is lighting quick, and with three starters on the offensive line returning to Eugene, James should be able to put up gaudy numbers once again. He, along with the rest of the team, is likely playing with a chip on their shoulders after losing by just three points in the BCS Title game.
Why he won’t win: It’s tough to find many reasons why LaMichael James won’t win the 2011 Heisman. He has a lot of things working in his favor, and that’s a big reason why he should be considered among the favorites to win it.
But, he’s almost certain to take a minor step back in 2011. It’s going to be extremely difficult to replicate the success he had last season. I still think he has a great season, but I don’t see him quite matching the numbers he put up last year, and I think there is a running back that will
have an even better season.
Kellen Moore (QB/Boise State)
Kellen Moore’s Heisman chances all but ended last season when Boise State was upset in Reno by Nevada. But, thanks to an incredible season,
Moore still finished 4th in the Heisman voting. He was the nation’s 2nd most efficient passer behind Heisman winner Cam Newton.
He threw for 3845 yards with 35 touchdowns and only 6 interceptions. He led the Broncos to a 12-1 season and a blowout victory over Utah in the Las Vegas Bowl. In 10 of Boise State’s 13 games, Moore completed over 70% of his passes.
Why he can win: Boise State enters the 2011 season with the usual lofty expectations. They will start the season ranked 7th in the coaches poll in prime position to finally make a run toward a National Title if the chips fall in their favor. If Moore can help the Broncos get past Georgia in Atlanta on the season’s first game, then it should be smooth sailing for Boise from there on.
Moore is almost surely going to put up huge numbers once again, and with 14 starters back, you have to think the Broncos have a great chance at running the table even though they are playing in a tougher Mountain West.
Why he won’t win: We can’t underestimate the fact that Moore lost his top two receivers from last season in Austin Pettis and Titus Young.
Even without those two, it shouldn’t affect Moore all that much.
But, it is going to take a lot for Boise State to actually get an opportunity to play for a National Championship, and the fact that Moore is seen as playing against lower level competition, that’s likely to hurt his case. That’s pretty unfair, because he is still playing against FBS competition, and putting up stellar numbers. Look for both Moore and Boise State to come up short in their quests for the Heisman and National Championship.
Justin Blackmon has the best chance among non QB's and RB's to win the Heisman.
Justin Blackmon (WR/Oklahoma State)
Oklahoma State has lofty expectations in 2011, and junior wide receiver Justin Blackmon is a huge reason why. Blackmon finished 5th in the Heisman voting in 2010 after an incredible season. He had 1782 receiving yards on 111 receptions and 20 touchdowns.
Blackmon had over 100 receiving yards in all 13 of the Cowboys’ games last season, helping Oklahoma State to an 11-win campaign. His best performance was against Texas Tech on October 16th in Lubbock, where he had 207 yards on 10 catches and a touchdown.
Why he can win: Blackmon is poised to have another big year in 2011, with quarterback Brandon Weeden also returning to Stillwater. He’s one of the best receivers in college football, and teams have still yet to prove they can stop him. Oklahoma State runs a pass-heavy offense, so Blackmon is assured to get a lot of looks.
Oklahoma State returns all five starters on the offensive line, so Justin Blackmon should have plenty of time to get open. He was the Biletnikoff winner in 2010, and you have to see him as one of the favorites to win that award again. It’s been a while since a wide receiver has won the award, but Blackmon might have as good a chance as anyone has since.
Whey he won’t win: It’s been 14 years since someone other than a quarterback or running back has won the Heisman Trophy. Michigan’s
two-way star Charles Woodson was the last to do so in 1997. You can’t like those odds if you are Blackmon, regardless of how dominant he has been in the past.
Another reason Blackmon won’t win the Heisman is that he might ultimately be outshined by a teammate. Quarterback Brandon Weeden is another guy with Heisman aspirations, and voters have been known to lean toward quarterbacks. I fully expect Blackmon to have a phenomenal season, but even that won’t be enough to earn him the stiff-arm.
Denard Robinson (QB/Michigan)
You would be hard pressed to find a more exciting player in college football than Denard Robinson. He set numerous NCAA records last season
as a sophomore for Michigan, including most rushing yards ever for a quarterback. It looked early on that Robinson might be that out of nowhere player that would win the Heisman. But, after a 5-0 start the Wolverines fell off, eventually finishing the season 7-6.
Even still, Robinson finished 6th in the Heisman voting thanks to his amazing season. After winning the QB battle over Tate Forcier, Robinson went on to throw for 2570 yards and 18 touchdowns, while running for 1702 yards and 14 more touchdowns.
Why he can win: He was unstoppable last season. He had incredible speed and could elude defenders when he took off running, but he also showed a vast improvement with his arm. Now, with a year of experience under his belt, Robinson should show improvement with his passing ability, and he will still have the rushing dynamic to give defenses something else to think about.
Even as the QB, Robinson had 9 games in which he rushed for over 100 yards, and in games against Notre Dame and Indiana, he had over 200
yards on the ground. He’s a playmaker, plain and simple, and that shouldn’t stop even with a new offense.
Why he won’t win: While I think Robinson will still have a good season, I don’t expect him to match his production from last year. Michigan
fans might deny it, but Al Borges’ pro-style offense will affect him. He is a prototypical spread quarterback, and the switch to a pro-style set will not be without some growing pains.
Obviously, Al Borges will keep some spread type plays to fit Robinson’s skill-set, but it won’t be near as many as last season. It seemed defenses started to figure out Denard later in the year last season. After 5 straight 100+ yard rushing games to start the season, he only had four more
100+ yard games in the final eight contests.
Brandon Weeden (QB/Oklahoma State)
There weren’t a whole lot of expectations for Brandon Weeden a year ago as he took the reigns as Oklahoma State’s starting quarterback. But the 26-year-old former minor league pitcher was brilliant for the Cowboys in 2010. He broke six school records on is way to throwing for 4277 yards with 34 touchdowns and 13 interceptions.
He guided Oklahoma State to an 11-2 season, and an Alamo Bowl victory over Arizona. The only two losses the Cowboys suffered were shootouts against Nebraska and Oklahoma.
Whey he can win: A lot of people are underestimating Brandon Weeden as a legitimate Heisman Trophy contender. He had a huge year last season for the Pokes and 2011 should be no different. Oklahoma State is probably the biggest challengers to Oklahoma in the Big XII. Weeden has the luxury of being protected by an offensive line that returns all five starters from last season.
Also, he has one of the best wide receivers in the nation Justin Blackmon, a Heisman contender in his own right. If Weeden can help Oklahoma State to a conference championship, then you have to believe that he has a great opportunity to be a Heisman finalist.
Why he won’t win: It remains to be seen how the loss of offensive coordinator Dana Holgerson will affect this Oklahoma State offense. With him last season, Oklahoma State had the #1 offense in the Big XII, and finished 3rd in the nation in total offense. You have to believe, though, that with most of the key cogs from last season’s squad returning, there shouldn’t be too significant of a drop off in production.
Also, I’m expecting Oklahoma State to come up short in their quest for the Big XII championship, and another quarterback from the state will likely outshine Weeden. But, I wouldn’t bet against Weeden as a Heisman finalist. I have a feeling that he could be among the select few invited to the Downtown Athletic Club in New York this December.
Darron Thomas should have a big season, but he's likely to be outshined by teammate LaMichael James.
Darron Thomas (QB/Oregon)
LaMichael James is the Oregon Duck that has gotten most of the Heisman consideration, but we can’t forget about his quarterback, Darron Thomas. Thomas busted on the scene as a sophomore last year, and there weren’t a whole lot of expectations. After Jeremiah Masoli was dismissed by Chip Kelly, Darron Thomas had to battle with Nate Costa for the starting QB job.
Thomas won, and the rest was history. He threw for 2881 yards last season with 30 touchdowns, and only 9 interceptions. He also scored five more touchdowns on the ground, while rushing for 486 yards. His excellent play helped lead the Ducks to the Pac-10 title and a berth in the National Championship game.
Whey he can win: Last season was Thomas’ first as a starter, and he was excellent. As a junior in 2011, you have to think that he is only going to get better. Thomas is a similar QB to former Duck Dennis Dixon, who was a serious Heisman candidate in 2007 before tearing his ACL. He doesn’t quite have Dixon’s ability to run the football, but they are similar nonetheless.
I think we saw signs of things to come from Darron Thomas in the BCS game against Auburn, where he completed 27 of his 40 passes for 363 yards against the Tigers. That game was by far his best game passing last year, and if he’s able to put that together for a full season, then he has a great shot at being invited to New York.
Why he won’t win: It’s unlikely that Thomas plays at the same level he did against Auburn for a full season. Also, LaMichael James offers the Ducks their best shot at a Heisman winner in 2011. Even though voters have often leaned toward quarterbacks over other positions, I doubt it works that way with James and Thomas.
Out of the two, I expect LaMichael James to have the better season, and to have an even greater impact on the Oregon offense. While Darron Thomas should be improved from 2010, look for him to be overshadowed by his teammate in the Heisman race.
Marcus Lattimore (RB/South Carolina)
Marcus Lattimore was one of the most highly recruited running backs in the class of 2010, and he didn’t disappoint in his freshman season for the Gamecocks. It didn’t take him long to become the starting running back in Columbia, and in the SEC opener against Georgia, Lattimore was brilliant. He carried the ball 37 times for 182 yards and a pair of touchdowns in their 17-6 win.
That wasn’t the last absurdly high number of carries in a game for Lattimore, as he shouldered the load against Florida, with 40 rushing attempts for 212 yards and three touchdowns to help South Carolina to a 36-14 win. Lattimore finished the season with 1197 rushing yards and 17 touchdowns, helping the Gamecocks to the Eastern Division title and a berth in the SEC Championship game against Auburn.
Whey he can win: I can’t wait to see what Lattimore has in store for an encore to his spectacular freshman season. We should see him once again shoulder the load for the South Carolina running game, and he could play an even bigger role for the team if Connor Shaw ends up starting at QB over Stephen Garcia.
South Carolina has three starters back on the offensive line, and Lattimore seems to be just getting started. As good as he was last season, he only eclipsed 100 yards four times last season, and that is a number you would expect to increase in 2011.
Why he won’t win: I’m not expecting South Carolina to be good enough to earn Lattimore serious consideration for the Heisman Trophy. His numbers should improve from his freshman season, but I think the Gamecocks are going to take a step back in 2011. I picked Georgia to win the SEC East, and the Gamecocks to pull up 2nd.
A 2nd place finish in the SEC East won’t likely be good enough for Lattimore to become the 2nd Gamecock to be selected into college football’s elite fraternity. Also, I think there is another running back in the SEC that will outshine Lattimore, and will have the advantage of playing on a better team.
Landry Jones (QB/Oklahoma)
Landry Jones was thrown into the lion’s den in 2009 as a redshirt freshman after Sam Bradford went down to injury. Understandably, he struggled at times. But, in his first full season a starter in 2010, Jones took a big step forward leading the Big XII in passing yards, and touchdowns. He threw for 4718 yards with 38 touchdowns and 12 interceptions.
For his performance, Jones was awarded the Sammy Baugh award as college football’s top passer. He led Oklahoma to a 12-2 record, a Big XII Championship, and a 48-20 win over Connecticut in the Fiesta Bowl.
Why he can win: Oklahoma is the preseason favorite to win the National Championship, and that obviously puts Landry Jones in a great position in the Heisman race early on. He’s almost surely going to put up big numbers in 2011. The Sooners have four starters back on the offensive line to protect Jones, and one of the top receivers in college football, Ryan Broyles, decided to return to Norman.
Jones has plenty of weapons to throw the ball to, and if Oklahoma can survive road games against Florida State and Oklahoma State, then you have to like their chances of playing in the BCS National Championship game. If Oklahoma gets there, then Landry Jones will more than likely be in the top two of the Heisman race.
Why he won’t win: Landry Jones still has to prove he can play better on the road. His struggles on the road last season were well documented, and if that happens again, then there is a good chance the Sooners lose a game or two. I don’t feel comfortable picking him as the Heisman winner because of it.
He struggled in losses to Missouri and Texas A&M last season, and ten of his twelve interceptions came away from Oklahoma Memorial Stadium. His inconsistency in my opinion, is likely to cost Oklahoma at least one game this season, and that could be enough to prevent him from becoming the third Oklahoma QB in the last eight years to win the Heisman.
That’s nine guys down, which means that this last guy is my pick to win the Heisman. Can you guess who it is? I believe the 2011 Heisman winner will be…
Trent Richardson has a great shot at winning Alabama's 2nd Heisman Trophy.
Trent Richardson (RB/Alabama)
It is finally Trent Richardson’s time in Tuscaloosa. The junior from Pensacola, Florida was 2nd on the depth chart last season behind Mark Ingram, but he still rushed for 700 yards on 112 carries, which is good for a 6.3 yards per carry average.
Richardson was able to showcase his ability in the first two games of the season in 2010 with Mark Ingram sideline after a knee scope. Richardson was particularly impressive against Penn State, when he rushed for 144 yards on 22 carries and proved that he could shoulder the load for the Tide backfield.
Why he will win: The 2011 season looks a lot like the 2009 season on paper for the Crimson Tide, which happens to be the same season Mark Ingram won Alabama’s first Heisman Trophy. Alabama’s defense looks downright dominant, and the offensive line returns four starters from last
year.
The offensive line is looking to get back to its dominant ways from the 2009 season. Also, Alabama is breaking in a new QB, just like with Greg McElroy in 2009. AJ McCarron or Phillip Sims will be a first-year starter under center, and you have to think that Nick Saban, especially early on, will be leaning on the Tide running game with Richardson.
If Alabama is able to run the table for the second time in three years, winning the SEC Championship and advancing to New Orleans for the BCS Title game, then you have to believe that Trent Richardson will be among the group invited to the Heisman ceremony.
There are a number of legitimate candidates for the Heisman race this year, and one couldn’t go wrong by picking any of these 10. At the end of the day, there is more than likely someone out there that we haven’t heard much about to this point. That is the guy that might jump out and take
the 2011 Heisman.
But, for the guys that are proven commodities, I’m taking Trent Richardson as the winner of the 2011 Heisman.
