The first games are in the books, and for those teams that survived the tough tests of the opening weekend there are just eleven more hurdles left to clear on the road toward becoming a BCS Buster. Several teams lost their best chance to emerge on the radar… and as we all know, even one defeat is the bane of a BCS Buster’s existence.
Therein lies the difference for non-AQ schools and all others. Take the fortunes of the two teams expected to make the most noise this year, Boise State and TCU. The former went into the not-so-neutral confines of the Georgia Dome and stole back to Idaho with a two-touchdown victory over the Bulldogs. The latter traveled south on the I-35 to renew an old battle with a former conference foe, nearly coming back from a three-score deficit to win the opener.
But the Broncos did win, and the Horned Frogs did not. And thus the former remains in the hunt for an elusive and lucrative BCS berth, while the latter bides its time as those last grains of sand trickle down its Mountain West hourglass before they upgrade to the Big East model. A win guarantees nothing for a non-AQ team, but a loss guarantees everything — once you lose, no matter your name recognition, you are guaranteed to be blocked from entry into a top-five bowl.
So let’s look at the teams that remain and assess what might have been for the teams that couldn’t hang on to live another week as we break down the BCS Buster Power Rankings after the opening-weekend slate of games…
THE TOP FIVE
1. BOISE STATE BRONCOS (MWC/1-0 — LAST WEEK: 1st)
- LAST GAME: won 35-21 v. Georgia (@ Georgia Dome)
- NEXT GAME: @ Toledo (9/16)
When the Broncos made the move to the Mountain West, it added another level of respect for the team among pollsters and pundits. What they did on Saturday night, however, seems to still have some mixed results. In taking down an SEC team on what was essentially its home turf, Boise State immediately knocked its statement game out of the ballpark and set itself up for its third BCS berth in six years. Yet there have been those quick to belittle the accomplishment. Make no mistake, no matter where the Bulldogs are at in their development as a team this was indeed a statement victory. The knock is always that Boise State couldn’t handle an SEC schedule… or a Big Ten, Pac-12 or Big XII schedule for that matter. But the BCS Buster has also always been held to a higher standard for mere consideration. Georgia can now turn around and focus on winning the SEC East; it still has a path to nab a BCS berth despite its loss in the opener. Had Boise State lost, they would be in the same boat now as their rival-for-a-year TCU — able only to play the spoiler of other opponents’ BCS dreams. A win cemented Moore’s credentials as one of the top five QBs in college football and put Petersen’s name more firmly among the best coaches in the game…
2. BYU COUGARS (IND/1-0 — LAST WEEK: 2nd)
- LAST GAME: won 14-13 @ Ole Miss
- NEXT GAME: @ Texas (9/10)
The Cougars narrowly avoided becoming fodder on the roadside of the college football journey when they were down late in Oxford this weekend. Through more than three quarters of the ballgame it appeared that BYU had tossed away all the passion and cohesiveness from its game along with its conference affiliation. But then Jake Heaps heated up enough to lead the Cougars on an 8-play, 72-yard drive on their first possession of the fourth quarter to halve the gap, and things started to look interesting down in Mississippi. The Rebels would hold on the next possession and look to run down the clock on the visitors’ comeback bid. But then Zack Stoudt did the unthinkable, coughing up the football deep in his own side of the field, and sophomore LB Kyle Van Noy picked up the gift and ran it back for the tying score. Moments later Justin Sorensen punched through the extra point, BYU was in the lead, and Ole Miss couldn’t get in position to kick a field goal to win. Bronco Mendenhall’s team lives to play another day after a win against an SEC school that, while it wasn’t as big a statement as Boise’s win in Georgia, was still a hostile road win that will sit well with pollsters. Next their independent schedule yields another statement showdown in Austin…
3. HAWAII WARRIORS (WAC/1-0 — LAST WEEK: 4th)
- LAST GAME: won 34-17 v. Colorado
- NEXT GAME: @ Washington (9/10)
The Warriors had better get used to being the hunted instead of the hunter, because — other than Nevada, who will not open its season until next weekend’s trip to Autzen Stadium — they are the only team in the WAC who still has an unblemished record after one week of play. Quarterback Bryant Moniz was actually not as big a threat through the air as we’ve come to expect, but he brought a previously-unseen element to the Hawaii offense that could make them even more dangerous than expected in the preseason. Running for 121 yards on 14 carries, Moniz already broke his previous season high for rushing… in a single game. Colorado had no answer for the suddenly dual-threat QB, as Moniz had four total touchdowns (rushing TDS of 1, 14 and 57 yards and one 22-yard TD pass to Joey Isoefa in the fourth quarter) to singlehandedly outpace their Pac-12 visitor. They’ll get another reeling Pac-12 foe on the road next week when they face Washington. The Huskies’ lackluster performance against FCS Eastern Washington bodes well for the Warriors as they seek out another win. Unless Nevada, breaking in a whole new backfield, upsets the Ducks next weekend, Hawaii will be in the driver’s seat both for conference supremacy and for the league’s potential BCS berth…
4. HOUSTON COUGARS (C-USA/1-0 – LAST WEEK: 15th)
- LAST GAME: won 38-34 v. UCLA
- NEXT GAME: @ North Texas (9/10)
We were waiting to see how Case Keenum would respond to his first game back in nearly a year since going down injured in the UCLA game last season. The 6th-year QB, who received a medical redshirt to come back for one last season guiding the Cougars, was just fine in the pocket, completing 30-of-40 passing for 310 yards and a touchdown. Kevin Sumlin, Jason Phillips and Kliff Kingsbury did a great job balancing the offense. Using Keenum’s ability to unsettle the secondary, they used that softened front to pick up shorter gains with RBs Bryce Beall and Michael Hayes. Solid if underutilized, the tandem combined to produce 111 yards and three touchdowns on just 18 carries. Keenum added seven more scrambles for another 30 yards. The defense was the heart-stopper, allowing 554 total yards by a balanced Bruins offense. Going to North Texas next weekend should allow the team to tune up its shortcomings ahead of their C-USA schedule. Shoring up that defense aside, no opponent remaining on the Cougars’ schedule should scare Sumlin’s crew. As Keenum gets more comfortable and they utilize Beall and Hayes more, Houston has the upper hand on basically every other opponent this season — which could mean going undefeated but failing to impress BCS voters…
5. NORTHERN ILLINOIS HUSKIES (MAC/1-0 — LAST WEEK: 13th)
- LAST GAME: won 49-26 v. Army
- NEXT GAME: @ Kansas (9/10)
The Huskies entered the season with some question marks, after the team bombed their chance at the MAC Championship and head coach Jerry Kill left to take the lead role at Minnesota. In came Dave Doeren, the defensive coordinator at Wisconsin, to take the reins and see if he could keep the Huskies in their dominant position in the MAC West. After senior QB Chandler Harnish torched the Black Knights of Army for six touchdowns (five passing, one rushing), all appeared well in DeKalb. But the defense, while keeping the Knights as one-dimensional as they’ve always been, were gashed for over 300 yards on the ground — 180 yards more than last year’s average allowed per game. Doeren will be sure to stress containment on the ground for their first road test of the season, a trip to Lawrence for a Big XII test against Kansas. If they can win this game, an even bigger BCS-conference road test awaits as the Huskies travel to Chicago to face Doeren’s former team in a neutral-site game at Soldier Field. After the way the Badgers played in their home opener against UNLV, an upset by Northern Illinois would escalate the team up the polls quickly toward national prominence…
THE REMAINING CONTENDERS
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6. SAN DIEGO STATE AZTECS (MWC/1-0 — LAST WEEK: 6th) |
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With TCU’s loss, San Diego State now slots up behind Boise State as the team with the second-best chance to emerge out of the conference. Other teams played more marquee games in the opening weekend to leapfrog them in the standings, but the Aztecs are set up to show up on the radar by the end of September. A trip to West point looms large, with a home game against Washington State to follow before heading back on the road to Ann Arbor to take on former coach Brady Hoke and the Michigan Wolverines. Win all three and they’ll be in position to make even more noise in conference with TCU awaiting immediately on October’s calendar…
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7. NEVADA WOLF PACK (WAC/0-0 — LAST WEEK: 9th) |
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The Wolf Pack sat this weekend and watched the teams ahead of them get taken down by larger foes. Of course, that’s what all the teams below them in the BCS Buster standings are hoping will happen to Nevada when they travel to Eugene next Saturday. A rebuilt offense will hope to keep pace with a potent Duck offense looking for a boost of pride after losing to LSU. If Chris Ault’s team can knock off last year’s BCS finalist on its home turf, they’ll leapfrog Hawaii as the favorite in the WAC. If they skirt that roadblock, Nevada then has two more big road tests out of conference: at Texas Tech, and at Boise State in a clash of former and future conference foes…
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8. AIR FORCE FALCONS (MWC/1-0 — LAST WEEK: 10th) |
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The Falcons had an easy weekend, dipping down a subdivision to open the season at home with a win against South Dakota. They are back in a familiar statistical position, leading the country in rushing yardage after one game with a 391-yard day for the team against the Coyotes. (And this despite no one player going over 100 yards in the game; Asher Clark’s 13 carries for 97 yards came closest on the day.) A hefty conference test awaits next, as the Falcons host a reeling Horned Frogs team aggravated after blowing their comeback bid against Baylor…
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9. BALL STATE CARDINALS (MAC/1-0 — LAST WEEK: NR) |
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Ball State made things miserable for Kevin Wilson in his debut as coach of the Hoosiers. The Cardinals didn’t exactly take down a heavyweight, but a win against a Big Ten school is never something to scoff about when you’re trying to make some noise as a non-AQ. The next test, though, will be much tougher — if Ball State somehow manages to walk out of Tampa with a win over a South Florida team that just went into South Bend and neutralized Notre Dame, they could be 4-0 (and maybe even ranked) when they head to Norman for the biggest statement of the year against #1 Oklahoma…
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10. TOLEDO ROCKETS (MAC/1-0 — LAST WEEK: 12th) |
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Toledo better hope that their performance against FCS New Hampshire is indicative of their newfound balance. Adonis Thomas looked great once more running the ball out of the backfield, picking up right where he left off in last year’s Little Caesars Bowl loss to FIU. But gashing the Wildcats’ defense is a lot different than beating the Buckeyes and Broncos, the next two tests for the Rockets. First they’ll travel to the Horseshoe hoping to fare better than MAC rival Akron against Luke Fickell and Ohio State… and then, if they survive that, they’ll get an even bigger BCS Buster test at home against Boise State…
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11. UCF KNIGHTS (C-USA/1-0 — LAST WEEK: 14th) |
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UCF had a glorified video-game scrimmage against Charleston Southern, scoring at will as four players combined for eight rushing touchdowns and defensive back Josh Robinson added an interception return for a touchdown. The Knights should be focused and firing on all cylinders for their first road trip of the season, as they head north to Massachusetts to take on Boston College in their only game against a BCS-conference opponent this season. A decisive win in Boston against an ACC middleweight is imperative if the Knights are going to harbor any legitimate hopes of BCS contention…
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12. CENTRAL MICHIGAN CHIPPEWAS (MAC/1-0 — LAST WEEK: NR) |
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Central Michigan was off the radar when the season started. They’d fallen back to earth after Dan LeFevour’s final season as QB and once Butch Jones had left for the head coaching job at Cincinnati, finishing 3-9 last year after going 12-2 in 2009. A win against South Carolina State is hardly a harbinger of greatness to come, but the Chippewas are set up nicely to make waves in the next few weeks. A trip to Kentucky begins a stretch where they’ll alternate road games against BCS competition with conference matchups. Following the Wildcats, Central Michigan faces Western Michigan, Michigan State, top MAC West rival Northern Illinois and NC State in the next four weeks…
GONE BUT NOT FORGOTTEN
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TCU HORNED FROGS (MWC/0-1 — LAST WEEK: 3rd) |
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Gary Patterson’s team certainly wasn’t expecting to feel the lowest of the lows, an 0-1 start to a season following their historic win in the Rose Bowl over Wisconsin that ended their bid for a third straight BCS berth before it started. I’ve already written about this loss, so we won’t go into it too much here — other than to reiterate that, had Baylor lost this game, they still ostensibly had a BCS shot while their former SWC rival is left to wait for next year when they join the Big East to enjoy a more sane path to qualification…
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MIAMI REDHAWKS (MAC/0-1 — LAST WEEK: 5th) |
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Miami was last year’s MAC champion, surprising Northern Illinois in the championship game. But they couldn’t surprise Missouri in their road opener in Columbia. The game was as close as 10-6 going into the fourth quarter, but the RedHawks went punt, turnover on downs, punt, fumble, end of game in the last fifteen minutes and threw away the upset bid. Now a trip to Minnesota offers little consolation for a team that had hopes of being the first BCS Buster from the MAC…
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TULSA GOLDEN HURRICANE (C-USA/0-1 — LAST WEEK: 7th) |
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Apparently losing Todd Graham to the Pittsburgh head-coaching opening was too much attrition for a school that otherwise returned boatloads of starting experience from last year’s squad. Of course, it could simply be that they were never going to be in the same caliber as their state-school big brother in Norman. Tulsa put 400 yards of offense on the Sooners, but it was still over 250 yards fewer than their opponent. The BCS dream withered on the vine for a veteran class in Tulsa with this loss…
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FRESNO STATE BULLDOGS (WAC/0-1 — LAST WEEK: 8th) |
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Pat Hill’s team never shies away from a challenge… you can at least say that much about them. Of course, that willingness to take on tough challengers also means that they’ll rarely make it to October as a BCS contender. Sometimes they spring an upset, but more often than not they play tough in defeat as they did when they traveled down to Berkeley. Now Fresno has to hope for Hawaii or Nevada to falter if they’ll have a shot at the WAC crown that has long eluded them…
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SMU MUSTANGS (C-USA/0-1 — LAST WEEK: 11th) |
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The Kyle Padron era gave way to the J.J. McDermott era rather quickly, as two early interception tosses by the former saw him riding the pine the rest of the game. McDermott was able to come in and lead a touchdown drive punctuated by Zach Line’s 1-yard run over the goal line. He would throw a TD pass to Keenan Holman to bring the Mustangs within six just a minute into the second quarter. And then the team would fail to score another point the rest of the way, allowing 26 straight as the Aggies won running away…
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LOUSIANA-MONROE WARHAWKS (SUN BELT/0-1 — LAST WEEK: 16th) |
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This was one of those picks that came mostly because somebody had to be predicted out of the Sun Belt in the preseason. The Warhawks were always going to have an uphill battle against the Seminoles, especially going to Tallahassee for the showdown. Instead it is FIU who is the only team left without a loss already in the Sun Belt — and that’s probably only because they faced conference opponent North Texas to begin the season. Look for the Sun Belt to drift back to mediocrity once again in 2011…
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UTAH STATE AGGIES (WAC/0-1 — LAST WEEK: NR) |
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Last but not least, we have to tip our cap to Utah State, who went to Auburn and nearly upset the defending BCS champions in their first game of the post-Cam Newton era. The Aggies, led on the field by QB Chuckie Keaton (21-of-30 for 213 yards, 8 carries for 33 yards and 2 TDs), led the Tigers on the Plains until the final minutes of the game. Bold moves throughout the game by Gary Andersen and his staff kept Utah State in the game until the end; the even bolder onside-kick recovery by Auburn undid the Cinderella dream in the end.
This close call for Auburn was hardly a fluke… remember that it was Utah State who nearly upset Oklahoma last year in their home opener, with senior QB Diondre Borel threw an interception to end their hopes in the 31-24 defeat. The Aggies are for real, and Utah State looks poised to be a danger in the WAC all season long. And when Nevada, Fresno State and Hawaii follow Boise State over to the Mountain West next season, it looks increasingly like the Aggies can be the class of the rebuilt WAC for years to come and a potential BCS Buster in the future.
