When a new college football season begins, 53 of the 120 FBS teams currently in existence are held to the standard of perfection just to be considered for a berth in one of the five biggest bowl games on the annual schedule. And by the second week of every season, there are just a dozen or so teams who are still undefeated after taking on tougher opponents to try to sell the school’s merits with a statement victory. More often than not those dreams of grandeur come crashing down to earth in a hostile stadium, the mouse that hoped to roar instead squeaking out a meek tone.
Six games between non-AQ schools and a member of a BCS conference came down to the wire, decided by eight points or less. Only one school, Florida International, prevailed in their close duel. The other five either failed to narrow the gap, or lost late leads, against schools who would have bolstered their credibility in the hunt to make a name for themselves.
But near-upsets are not upsets. And in the hunt to bust the BCS, perfection in the standings is the only way to force the pollsters and the computers to pay enough attention to even have a chance of grabbing one of the lucrative at-large berths. As Boise State found out last year, even beating the conference champion and BCS qualifier of an AQ-conference school is sometimes not enough to impress those that make the final decisions.
Only twelve teams remain with an untarnished record after a savage Week 2 obliteration of several contenders. We’ll talk more about those teams that are gone but not forgotten soon enough, but first let’s rank the dirty dozen that remain alive in the quest to crash the blue-blood party that is the BCS…
THE TOP FIVE
1. BOISE STATE BRONCOS (MWC/1-0 — LAST WEEK: 1st)
- LAST GAME: won 35-21 v. Georgia (@ Georgia Dome, 9/3)
- NEXT GAME: @ Toledo (9/16)
Boise State remained the only team with a pedigree in the hunt for the BCS. The two-time Buster — and two-time Fiesta Bowl champion at that — had a bye week in Week 2 after its “neutral-site” game against the Georgia Bulldogs in one of last Saturday’s marquee matchups. For the first time in school history, the Broncos felled an SEC opponent with their two-touchdown defeat of the Bulldogs. It was a strong statement that spoke volumes about Boise’s ability at this point to reload the roster rather than rebuild. For a team that has had more sustained success than all but a handful of annual national contenders, the season is stacked up favorably for a run at a third BCS berth. Of course, it would help the perception of their schedule’s strength if scheduled opponents like Toledo managed to knock off their BCS-conference opponents (more on that later), but if the Broncos run the table — which seems more and more likely with each passing week, even when they’re not playing a down — Chris Petersen’s team will be the undisputed front-runner for whatever at-large berth might end up going to a non-AQ school…
2. HOUSTON COUGARS (C-USA/2-0 – LAST WEEK: 4th)
- LAST GAME: won 48-23 @ North Texas
- NEXT GAME: @ Louisiana Tech (9/17)
Case Keenum’s return from injury last week saw the 6th-year senior throw for his 26th career 300+ yard game in college as he led the Cougars to victory over the visiting UCLA Bruins. Week 2 saw Keenum go even further statistically, completing 26 of 41 passes for 458 yards and five touchdowns as Houston won over their Sun Belt visitors. It was the quarterback’s 13th career college game with over 400 passing yards, and he entered the year needing less than 4000 yards to eclipse Timmy Chang’s FBS record for passing yards in a career. As long as he stays healthy, Keenum will almost certainly set a new record — by at least a thousand yards this season. But with a schedule where the toughest remaining tests are trips to UTEP and Tulsa and home games against Marshall, Rice and SMU, there might simply be too much sizzle and not enough steak for pollsters to give the Cougars the benefit of the doubt. So while Keenum will almost certainly walk away from this season with some new records set in his name, his team might not enjoy as much collective success even if they do go undefeated the rest of the way…
3. UCF KNIGHTS (C-USA/2-0 — LAST WEEK: 11th)
- LAST GAME: won 30-3 v. Boston College
- NEXT GAME: @ FIU (9/17)
The Knights have been a trendy pick in recent years, getting recognition both as a Conference USA contender as well as seeing their name bandied about as a potential expansion candidate for BCS conferences in the near future. With their win over ACC middleweight Boston College, UCF established itself as the school in 2011 with the best chance to become the first BCS Buster from east of the Mississippi River. The defense was stout, allowing just 141 yards combined offensively against the Eagles. BC was never able to warm up into the game, as UCF kept distancing themselves further and further and inverted the script. After two games, the Knights lead the nation in scoring defense and second in yardage allowed per game. If UCF can keep up this pace, their matchups on the road in the next two weeks — against fellow in-state BCS Buster candidate FIU next week, and against BYU in the thin air of Provo the week after — could determine the course of the next two months afterward. Get past these two tests and there’s no knowing how high George O’Leary’s Knights can fly in the standings…
4. SAN DIEGO STATE AZTECS (MWC/2-0 — LAST WEEK: 6th)
- LAST GAME: won 23-20 @ Army
- NEXT GAME: @ Kansas (9/10)
The Mountain West is home to one-third of the teams which remain undefeated and in the hunt for that elusive berth in the big time. The trip to West Point was a lot tougher than the Aztecs might have expected, as Army shook off an early two-touchdown deficit to level the game up at halftime. San Diego State drove in the second half for the go-ahead score, with RB Ronnie Hillman experiencing no sophomore slump in 2011 as he carried the final 20 yards for the lead on his second touchdown run of the day. After missing their extra point, the Aztecs allowed Army to waltz down the field and score the tying touchdown in the beginning of the fourth quarter. A go-ahead field goal by SDSU left nine-plus minutes on the clock for the home team to get the upset. The Cadets sucked eight of those minutes off the clock, driving into Aztec territory and knocking on the cusp of field-goal territory when their offense bogged down. As Lindley took a knee on the final play, draining the clock to zeros, San Diego State could only breathe a sigh of relief as they escaped. They now must beware the Jayhawk trap that took down another BCS Buster candidate this week…
5. FIU GOLDEN PANTHERS (SUN BELT/2-0 — LAST WEEK: NR)
- LAST GAME: won 24-17 @ Louisville
- NEXT GAME: v. UCF (9/17)
Mario Cristobal’s fifth season at FIU could easily yield a second consecutive Sun Belt title; the Golden Panthers are the only team in the conference who has yet to sustain a defeat this season. Last year’s 7-6 season, culminating in a thrilling come-from-behind victory in the Little Caesars Bowl over Toledo, gave FIU their first winning campaign in the program’s single decade of existence. In this tenth year of FIU football, they could be destined for even greater things. Receiver T.Y. Hilton threw his name into the hat of Biletnikoff candidates for best WR in the nation, catching half of QB Wesley Carroll’s 14 completions for 201 yards and two touchdowns. He also ran two kick returns for another 67 yards. Look for him on Sundays somewhere next year. This week FIU will test out that stout Knights defense when UCF heads down the Atlantic coast in the battle of top-five BCS Buster candidates. The winner gains the inside track to an undefeated season and some Buster consideration for their school and conference. The loser will be eliminated from the race…
THE REMAINING CONTENDERS
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6. OHIO BOBCATS (MAC/2-0 — LAST WEEK: NR) |
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7. TEMPLE OWLS (MAC/2-0 — LAST WEEK: NR) |
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8. BOWLING GREEN FALCONS (MAC/2-0 — LAST WEEK: NR) |
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With the fall of Northern Illinois on the last play of their game yesterday on the road against Kansas, these three MAC teams are lumped together just outside the top five as virtually indistinguishable at this point. All three have played one non-AQ game (with Temple’s coming in conference against Akron), with their other victory coming against FCS competition. The next few weeks should let us see which among them will break out and be the top contenders for the two divisional titles.
The Bobcats get the nod as the top of the three at the moment by virtue of their win on the road against New Mexico State. Seriously?! Yes… because when the Aggies went to the Twin Cities, and beat by a touchdown a Minnesota Gophers team that had narrowly lost at the Coliseum to USC in their opener, Ohio’s trip to Las Cruces and 20-point win looked even better by comparison.
Temple has the biggest statement chance left on their schedule. If the Owls can finish off Penn State and get the upset that they let slip through their fingertips last season, and can follow that up with another victory against the Terrapins on the road, they would have the best chance of the trio to vault higher up the standings.
Bowling Green hosts Wyoming next week, the back end of a home-and-home series that started when the Falcons won on the road three years ago in Laramie. Their biggest test left to come, though, will be a trip to Morgantown to face the top-20 WVU Mountaineers. If the Falcons can survive West Virginia, they’ve got as good a chance to run the table as either MAC rival in this group.
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9. NAVY MIDSHIPMEN (IND/2-0 — LAST WEEK: NR) |
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10. COLORADO STATE RAMS (MWC/2-0 — LAST WEEK: NR) |
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What separates Navy from Colorado State at this point? Like the MAC schools, both have defeated one FCS and one FBS team so far. Colorado is 1-0 in Mountain West play after opening the season with a win at home over New Mexico. The Midshipmen are 2-0 after defeating the Hilltoppers in Kentucky.
Really, there’s only two things separating these teams right now. One, Navy has actually taken its team on the road. Two, they’ve got a much tougher test coming up next weekend.
The Rams head south to Denver to take on in-state rival Colorado (0-2 after losses at Hawaii and home to Cal) in Mile High Stadium. The Midshipmen head to Columbia to face defending SEC East champion South Carolina (2-0 after wins against East Carolina and Georgia).
And the test beyond that is no comparison. Navy plays on the road against two more BCS teams (Rutgers and Notre Dame). After the Colorado game, the Rams get into the heart of their Mountain West schedule. They get Boise State and San Diego State both at home, and their toughest road test of the year is a trip to Fort Worth for their last conference game against TCU.
So right now these two teams are essentially a wash, with Navy getting the nod at #9 on those two factors alone. By the end of September, only one is likely to remain standing.
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11. EASTERN MICHIGAN EAGLES (MAC/2-0 — LAST WEEK: NR) |
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12. WYOMING COWBOYS (MWC/2-0 — LAST WEEK: NR) |
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The last two undefeated non-AQ teams nominally remaining in the hunt for a BCS berth have achieved their 2-0 records by diving down a level for their competition. Eastern Michigan won by a combined 55-16 over Howard and Alabama State in the comfy confines of home. Wyoming has also played both their first two games on home turf, winning over Weber State and Texas State by a combined 80-42 score. Neither has appreciably distinguished themselves… but both are still standing, where other teams that took on tougher tests have fallen by the wayside.
Things do pick up on the schedule for both teams, with Eastern Michigan facing a much tougher road to get out of September undefeated. The Eagles travel to Michigan Stadium, where the Wolverines inaugurated their lights with a nonstop-action 35-31 night win over Notre Dame on Saturday. If they make it through the test against the flagship university in their own state, they get another test immediately when they take on Penn State in Happy Valley.
Wyoming goes to Bowling Green next week in an elimination game between the BCS Buster hopefuls. Then new Big Ten member Nebraska comes to Laramie for a showdown at altitude in War Memorial Stadium. They finish off the non-conference slate with a road trip southwest to face a tough Utah State team. And then there’s the landmine-riddled Mountain West schedule, complete with visits to San Diego State and Boise State and Colorado State.
If either of these two teams are still in the hunt by October, it will be nothing short of a miracle that puts them squarely among the top non-AQ teams in the country…
GONE BUT NOT FORGOTTEN
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BYU COUGARS (IND/1-1 — LAST WEEK: 2ND) |
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The Cougars had the game in their hands, the upset right there for the taking. The Longhorns had to use four different quarterbacks, pulling starter Garrett Gilbert after he went 2-for-8 for 8 yards… and two interceptions. But Texas’ defense was strong against the run, allowing just 43 yards on 23 total rushing attempts by BYU. Forced to win the game through the air, Jake Heaps’ late interception (his second of the game) ultimately cost the Cougars the BCS.
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HAWAII WARRIORS (WAC/1-1 — LAST WEEK: 3RD) |
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The Warriors had high hopes of being this year’s WAC champion and repeating in the footsteps of its 2007 team with an undefeated season and BCS consideration. But their first voyage to the mainland in 2011 was unkind indeed. Hawaii still looked sleepy as they allowed three first-quarter touchdowns to stake the Huskies a 21-0 lead. Bryant Moniz pulled the team within six points inside two minutes to go, but a blocked extra point and recovery for two the other way sealed Hawaii’s fate.
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NORTHERN ILLINOIS HUSKIES (MAC/1-1 — LAST WEEK: 5TH) |
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For Dave Doeren’s squad, this might have been the cruelest fate suffered by any of the BCS contenders. Favored to win in their road game against Kansas, the two teams traded touchdowns back and forth all game long. When Jasmin Hopkins ran in from one yard out to give the Huskies the 42-38 lead with five minutes remaining, it looked as though they had survived a tougher-than-expected encounter. But the Jayhawks drove down to score the decisive points with just 9 seconds remaining, and now a lot of luster comes off the Soldier Field showdown with Wisconsin next week.
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NEVADA WOLF PACK (WAC/0-1 — LAST WEEK: 7TH) |
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The Wolf Pack never really had a chance. Traveling to Autzen Stadium in Eugene for their season opener, they were met head-on by an Oregon team smarting from its loss to LSU in Week 1. The Ducks scored 34 unanswered points to start the game, QB Darron Thomas tied a school record with six touchdown passes in a game and Nevada was outmatched from the opening whistle. With a loss out of the gate, Chris Ault’s young team has just a final WAC campaign to focus on now before their Mountain West move in 2012.
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AIR FORCE FALCONS (MWC/1-1 — LAST WEEK: 8TH) |
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The deficit was set early, as TCU rebounded from its loss last week to Baylor to punish the Falcons in the first Mountain West game of the year for both schools. Air Force was down 21-3 at halftime and never looked like they would claw their way back into the contest despite outgaining the Horned Frogs in total yardage 416-410. Once again, the Falcons are left on the outside looking in before the calendar has even flipped from September into October.
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BALL STATE CARDINALS (MAC/1-1 — LAST WEEK: 9TH) |
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Ball State scored a consolation touchdown in the fourth quarter to prevent the shutout, but that was the only highlight on an otherwise dismal day in Tampa for the Cardinals. South Florida, coming off an emotional victory in South Bend, scored right out of the gate when they forced a fumble on the opening kickoff. Up seven points after just eight seconds, the Bulls would score on five of its next six possessions before halftime and then again later in the third to seal the resounding rout.
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TOLEDO ROCKETS (MAC/1-0 — LAST WEEK: 10TH) |
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Toledo was oh-so-close to ruining the day in Columbus. After scoring on their opening drive, Ohio State allowed two quick touchdowns by speedy receiver Eric Page and were down 15-7 after one quarter. The Buckeyes scored twice to go up 21-15 at halftime, but Adonis Thomas’ touchdown run to start the second half gave the Rockets the lead right back. Ohio State scored later in the third quarter to set the final score, but needed a late stand in the final minute to prevent the upset and ruin Toledo’s BCS dreams.
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CENTRAL MICHIGAN CHIPPEWAS (MAC/1-0 — LAST WEEK: 12TH) |
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Central Michigan had the lead firmly in its hands at halftime on their trip to Lexington. A statement win against an SEC program looked well within their capabilities. But the Wildcats adjusted in the locker room and came out for the second half a changed team, stifling the Chippewas to prevent another score the rest of the day. It ultimately proved to be a comfortable two-touchdown victory as Central Michigan fell from the ranks of the BCS Busters.
