BCS Buster Power Rankings: 2011 Week 6 Rankings

Posted by Zach Bigalke on Tue, October 11, 2011 at 7:58 pm · Shortlink:

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The most consistently-made argument against seeing a school from one of the five non-AQ conferences earning entry into a BCS bowl game is that they have built their resume on a much weaker schedule than those champions of the six BCS leagues were forced to play. The people who make this argument are inclined to bring up how it isn’t that the BCS Busters can knock off a highly-ranked AQ powerhouse but rather that it is a question of whether these schools could stand up to eight or nine games within a BCS conference on top of their out-of-conference games.

Which is why I want to take a moment to talk about an AQ school right now, the most recent rise to the ranks of the big boys. For the BCS Busters past and present, this season represented the chance to answer that question. Utah, after winning the 2005 Fiesta Bowl over Pittsburgh and the 2009 Sugar Bowl over Alabama, was elevated to the expanded Pac-12 starting this season.

Many wanted to perceive this season as the litmus test for all other non-AQ schools, the chance to answer that question about consistency against stronger competition than they were presumed to face in the mid-major conferences. And by that measure, the inaugural season in the Pac-12 has blown up on Utah. Now 0-3 in conference play after their 35-14 loss at home to Arizona State, bowl eligibility is now the highest goal for a team below .500 after 5 games.

But is this really an indictment? Coming into the Pac-12 the Utes spent $9.9 million on football out of a total athletic-department budget of $29.7 million in the 2009-10 seasons, the most recent year with viable data. Washington State, a Pac-10 afterthought who had gone 25-58 over the past seven seasons, spent slightly less on football ($9.2 million)… out of a total AD budget over $10 million larger than that of the University of Utah.

The biggest gulf separating the haves from the have-nots is not the level of play on the field, but the level of cash in the coffers. If, by the Utes’ third season in the Pac-12 in 2013, they are still wallowing in the division basement, then we might want to start decrying the legitimacy of BCS Busters.

But remember that this is not the first time a non-AQ powerhouse has been elevated to AQ status. After going 11-1 in 2004, the Louisville Cardinals were called up to the Big East as one of the replacements for the departing Miami/Florida State/Boston College triumvirate. Going 9-3 in their first season, the Cardinals then won the conference and the 2007 Orange Bowl over Wake Forest to finish 12-1.

Success is possible for mid-majors against BCS competition. So while the season has been a tough road for the Utes, a dearth of depth and a penchant for turnovers both contributing to the demise of their Cinderella dreams as the new belle at the ball, the jury should still be out on using this example as an indictment of all BCS Busters and their potential for competing in a BCS conference.

There is plenty of talent and competition at the non-AQ level… just a lack of the top-shelf facilities and resources (and the money to acquire both) that allow teams to recruit the depth to compete at the top. Utah now gets their chance to build the program beyond the highest echelons available to those still draped in mid-major obscurity.

It’s great for Kyle Whittingham, his players and staff, and the rest of the Utes community. But, rightly or wrongly, the success (or failure) of BCS Busters freshly promoted to the ranks of the establishment does form perception about the other BCS Buster threats still shackled by I-A(ii) status.

Will Utah’s inability to transition seamlessly to the BCS level affect other aspiring Busters? It shouldn’t, of course. Teams must fight their own fight, and simultaneously holding others’ missteps against them is a foolhardy endeavor. So let’s dispel the notion that the actions of a former BCS Buster should determine the validity of any other team’s claim to BCS Buster status. How do we do that? By giving each team their own fair look, evaluating them on their own merits, and making our decisions accordingly. In that spirit, let’s get down to the business of looking at this year’s crop of contenders after the sixth week of games are complete…

1. Boise State Broncos (MWC/5-0 — Last Week: 1st)

W @ Georgia (@ Georgia Dome) 35-21
W @ Toledo 40-15
W v. Tulsa 41-21
W v. Nevada 30-10
W @ Fresno State 57-7

This is the kind of game that a team like Boise State needs to have every week if it wants to have any shot at building up enough credibility in the minds of pollsters to break not just into a BCS bowl game but into the biggest one of them all. Forget Utah — the Broncos have become the model of sustained excellence, switching conferences without a hitch and continuing to dominate against one team after another. There was a time when Fresno State seemed to be on the cusp of greatness, as though they were destined to be the next BCS Buster in the chain. Instead out of the WAC it was Boise State that defined a new level of excellence for non-AQ schools. The problem now for the Broncos is not the schedule — the Mountain West should offer challenges, enough to legitimize their top standing in the polls but none that are insurmountable. Instead the problem is one of the teams ahead of them. With the season on course to finish with potential undefeated champions of the SEC, Big Ten, Big XII and maybe even the ACC and Pac-12, the Mountain West champion might just get squeezed out of the national championship discussion in a numbers game involving more name-brand powerhouses.

2. Houston Cougars (C-USA/6-0 – Last Week: 2nd)

W v. UCLA 38-34
W @ North Texas 48-23
W @ Louisiana Tech 35-34
W v. FCS Georgia State 56-0
W @ UTEP 49-42
W v. East Carolina 56-3

Finally the Cougars made a statement! After two games scraping by Conference USA competition with a demolition of an FCS team in between, Houston came out against East Carolina and proactively started showing pollsters why they ought to be considered in the discussion for an at-large BCS berth regardless of what happens with Boise State. At this point there are just 13 undefeated teams left — and that number will inevitably dwindle. In the Big Ten, Illinois plays Michigan and Wisconsin on back-to-back November weekends. The SEC sees LSU and Alabama face one another on November 5. Kansas State faces Oklahoma and Oklahoma State on either side of Halloween; if both survive the Wildcats, Bedlam will ensue on the first weekend of December to settle the deal. Georgia Tech and Clemson face one another on the last weekend of October. If there are conceivably just a half-dozen undefeated teams remaining, with one being Boise State and another Houston, we could see the first-ever C-USA Buster in just the second two-Buster season in BCS history.

3. Louisiana-Lafayette Ragin’ Cajuns (SUN BELT/5-1 — Last Week: 4th)

L @ Oklahoma State 61-34
W @ FCS Kent State 20-12
W v. FCS Nicholls State 38-21
W @ FIU 36-31
W v. FAU 37-34
W v. Troy 31-17

The Ragin’ Cajuns are now on pace for the first bowl berth in school history… and if they continue to win, they could very well be in the discussion for far more. In his first season as the head coach at Louisiana-Lafayette, Mark Hudspeth has kept up the same momentum that saw his former South Alabama teams gain enough momentum for the school that it will soon be his new team’s conference rival starting in 2012 upon elevation to the FBS. The school first appeared on the BCS Buster radar when it defeated FIU at the end of September. Then, this weekend, the school went out and defeated five-time Sun Belt champion/co-champion Troy in a resounding announcement of its intentions. They should have secured their first ten-win season in school history when they travel to Arizona to face the Wildcats in Tucson, only the game against Arkansas State a week earlier a threat against that eventuality. And the Pac-12 cellar dweller might very well be fodder to complete an 11-1 Sun Belt championship season and a discussion in the BCS at-large hunt.

4. SMU Mustangs (C-USA/4-1 — Last Week: 3rd)

L @ Texas A&M 46-14
W v. UTEP 28-17
W v. FCS Northwestern State 40-7
W @ Memphis 42-0
W @ TCU 40-33 (OT)

Why did I move an SMU team that is coming off its first upset of TCU since 2005 down the polls? Well, you can rest assured that it wasn’t their choice of bye week. No, the one problem working against a team like SMU is the fact that Houston still looks like the odds-on favorite to win Conference USA. When second-place teams from the Big East and ACC and sometimes even the Pac-12 have a hard time legitimizing a second BCS berth for their conference, it would take a miraculous turnaround for SMU to merit discussion ahead of an 11-1 Sun Belt champion. That, of course, is only if Houston ends up a 13-0 C-USA champ. The Mustangs do have a direct voice in the matter, with a showdown at Houston on November 19 that will almost certainly determine the West Division champ. Should SMU win out, take the conference championship and finish with their first 12-win season since their mythical 1935 national championship run, there might just be enough to convince pollsters to elevate this longtime big-name sleeping-giant program to a prominent bowl slot.

5. Southern Miss Golden Eagles (C-USA/5-1 — Last Week: 6th)

W v. Louisiana Tech 19-17
L @ Marshall 26-20
W v. FCS SE Louisiana 52-6
W @ Virginia 30-24
W v. Rice 48-24
W @ Navy 63-35

The Conference USA question doesn’t merely hinge on whether Houston or SMU emerges from the West. With their four-touchdown margin of victory over the Midshipmen last Saturday, Southern Miss also reemerged as a threat. With the conference employing a championship game, the potential exists that the Golden Eagles could trump both the Cougars and the Mustangs in the hunt. The first question in the equation will be answered next week when SMU comes to town — let’s call it the Bobby Collins Bowl in honor of the disgraced former coach of both schools. If Southern Miss survives the visitors from Dallas, the path clears to the C-USA title game if they can get past UCF and East Carolina. The only snag in their path would be a resurgence by Marshall — currently the Thundering Herd are the only team to have dealt Larry Fedora’s squad a loss this season. If the two teams ended tied with just one loss in the conference, it would be Marshall and not Southern Miss earning the berth despite the divergent paths since their head-to-head showdown.

6. TCU Horned Frogs (MWC/4-2 — Last Week: 9th)

L @ Baylor 50-48
W @ Air Force 35-19
W v. Louisiana-Monroe 38-17
W v. FCS Portland State 55-13
L v. SMU 40-33 (OT)
W @ San Diego State 27-14

Say what you will about TCU, but they’ve proven resilient in reclaiming a top-six spot in this week’s BCS Buster Power Rankings. And right now, everybody else in the Mountain West has to go through the Horned Frogs if they want to win the conference championship — TCU is now up 2-0 in conference play after their most recent win on the road over not-yet-there San Diego State. That will most likely be 4-0 by the time they travel to Boise to face the Broncos on November 12… with New Mexico, newly-independent BYU and Wyoming between them and that date with destiny, a 7-2 TCU would be well positioned to present the last best challenge for Boise State on their own competing quest for national championship glory. At the same time TCU is the team that should be taking the most interest in Utah’s situation this season. Set to move up to AQ status next season — a long-sought invitation to the Big XII trumping their expected advancement to Big East status — and a similarly-rebuilt team needs this season of seasoning to have a better shot in 2012.

7. Temple Owls (MAC/4-2 — Last Week: 16th)

W v. FCS Villanova 42-7
W @ Akron 41-3
L v. Penn State 14-10
W @ Maryland 38-7
L v. Toledo 36-13
W @ Ball State 42-0

The Owls have had a roller-coaster ride this season. It appeared for most of their game against Penn State that this would be the season that Temple finally felled their bigger-brother state rival. Then they pulled defeat from the clutches of victory. Turning around they routed Maryland in College Park, finally snagging that statement victory. Then came the defeat at home against Toledo, as the Owls were completely overrun by the Rockets. Coming right back, they went to Ball State and shut out the home side 42-0. Which team are we to believe this year, Steve Addazio? Right now Temple still looks like the best bet to advance to the MAC Championship Game out of the East, thus their taking this position in the Power Rankings. And Toledo is a hell of a lot better than their 3-3 record gives credit. But the Owls can slip up no longer, especially next weekend against a Buffalo team that got the better of Ohio last Saturday.

8. BYU Cougars (IND/4-2 — Last Week: 11th)

W @ Ole Miss 14-13
L @ Texas 17-16
L v. Utah 54-10
W v. UCF 24-17
W v. Utah State 27-24
W v. San Jose State 29-16

It hasn’t been pretty this season for the Cougars, their first year of conference in the program’s 90th year of existence. But other than the blowout defeat in the early-season incarnation of the Holy War against in-state rival Utah, the Cougars have acquitted themselves better than might have been expected. Their only other defeat came against Texas in a game they probably should have won after leading 13-0 in the second quarter and 16-10 in the fourth quarter. Squeaking past other opponents hasn’t necessarily been impressive, but BYU has done everything that is required of them. A BCS berth is out of reach at this point, with their last BCS-conference challenge of the year coming on the road in Corvallis next week against woeful Oregon State. A win is what is expected, so it can do little to boost their credentials. A loss, though, would be a damning indictment of their last best chance at a respectable bowl berth.

9. San Diego State Aztecs (MWC/3-2 — Last Week: 7th)

W v. FCS Cal Poly 49-21
W @ Army 23-20
W v. Washington State 42-24
L @ Michigan 28-7
L v. TCU 27-14

A week after their showdown with former coach Brady Hoke ended with the Aztecs heading home with the stain of their first loss of the season, they suffered the safe fate a second time against lame-duck conference rival TCU. San Diego State is still stacked across the board favorably with last year’s squad, a year more experienced at that. But the setback against the Horned Frogs means that they’ll need help to claim the conference championship. First, they’ll have to beat Colorado State and Boise State in successive weeks. Then they’ll have to hope that TCU suffers two conference losses in their final Mountain West season. Nothing less will allow Rocky Long’s team to steal the conference crown. And nothing less than a conference crown would awaken pollsters to just how well San Diego State’s schedule compares against, say, whoever emerges from the beleaguered Big East.

10. Western Michigan Broncos (MAC/4-2 — Last Week: 12th)

L @ Michigan 34-10
W v. FCS Nicholls State 38-7
W v. Central Michigan 44-14
L @ Illinois 23-20
W @ Connecticut 38-31
W v. Bowling Green 45-21

Why Western Michigan in the ten-spot? Well… no team aside from Arizona State has held the Illini to fewer points than the 23 the Broncos allowed back in September. The loss to Michigan was painful, but Western Michigan also allowed fewer points than BCS-level teams Notre Dame, Minnesota and Northwestern to the Wolverines. The Broncos are positioned better than any other team in the MAC West, but the next four weeks are a labyrinth they must successfully navigate to get into November with a shot at the championship game. Starting with Northern Illinois next week, the Broncos are on the road the next two weekends in games they must win to remain nationally relevant. Survive the Huskies as well as Eastern Michigan, and they have to host Ball State before going to Toledo for another must-win road game. For Western Michigan, a team that already has two losses on their record and has no realistic shot at being this year’s Buster, the conference title game is their BCS bowl game.