Can Cam Newton, proven innocent, pull of the upset on the road?
Carolina at Atlanta
I like Carolina for the upset here. Despite the preseason expectations, Carolina actually has a better point differential on the season and has outgained their opponents by over 300 yards, and Atlanta has been outgained by their opponents by over 200 yards. I expect Cam Newton to notch his 4th 300 yard game of his young career against this week Falcons pass defense. Carolina has also struggled against the pass, but I’m not sure Matt Ryan is capable of exploiting this. His single game high this year in yards per attempt is 7.02 against Tampa Bay. Chad Henne and 17 other quarterbaks have averaged better than 7.1 yards per attempt on the season. Chad Henne. CHAD HENNE.
Carolina 31, Atlanta 30
Indianapolis at Cincinnati
While both of those teams are mediocre at best offensively, Indianapolis has one of the lesser defenses in the NFL while Cincinnati has one of the best. The Bengals are one of only two teams to be in the top 5 in both rushing yards per attempt allowed and passing yards per attempt allowed. Curtis Painter played well last week against Kansas City, but he’s still completed less than half of his passes this season and his career completion percentage is a staggeringly awful 42.7%.
Cincinnati 24, Indianapolis 17
San Francisco at Detroit
Although Detroit’s secondary lacks starpower, they’ve been very effective this year at preventing big plays. Although teams are completing 67.4% of their passes against them, 5th worst in the league, they’re not going for too many yards as Detroit is giving up just 6.3 yards per attempt, 4th best in the NFL. They also have more interceptions than touchdowns allowed. Alex Smith has been very efficient this year, but if this game turns into a shootout, he can’t hang with Stafford.
Detroit 31, San Francisco 20
Aaron Rodgers could be in the midst of one of the greatest seasons in NFL history
St. Louis at Green Bay
Week 5’s easiest pick of the week (NYG over SEA) didn’t turn out so well, but I’d be stunned if Green Bay doesn’t beat St. Louis with ease. Instead of listing all the reasons why Green Bay will dominate, I’d like to take a moment to acknowledge Aaron Rodgers’ unbelievable brilliance. He’s currently completing over 71.7% of his passes. The current record for completion percentage is 70.6%, set by Drew Brees in 2009. The only other 2 quarterbacks to start at least 10 games and complete over 70% of their passes are Steve Young and Joe Montana.
Green Bay 31, St. Louis 13
Buffalo at New York Giants
Even though the Giants shockingly lost to the terrible Seattle Seahawks at the Meadowlands last week, I’m picking them again here. The Bills defense, despite their impressive amount of interceptions, is vulnerable to the pass and Eli Manning has been great this year. Ryan Fitzpatrick started the season off very well, but has since come back to Earth. Over the last 2 games, he’s averaged under 6.5 yards per attempt and has just 1 touchdown pass.
New York Giants 27, Buffalo 24
Jacksonville at Pittsburgh
No team has gained less yards per game than the Jacksonville Jaguars and only team has allowed less yards per game than the Pittsburgh Steelers. The Steelers greatest strength this year has been their pass defense, where they have given up a league low 5.6 yards per attempt. Pittsburgh’s Achilles Heel has been turnovers. Their turnover differential is -10, tied for worst in the league. Although against Jacksonville, their turnover differential could be -10 for this one game alone and they could still win.
Pittsburgh 24, Jacksonville 10
Philadelphia at Washington
Last week, the Philadelphia Eagles yet again outgained their opponent, this time by over 150 yards, and yet again they lost. As with the Steelers, they’ve been killed by turnovers this year, posting a -10 differential for the season. The Eagles have a clear advantage offensively and the Redskins have a clear advantage defensively, so this is a hard game to pick, but I’m going with the Philadelphia Eagles. Although the Eagles defense has been very poor, the thought of Rex Grossman passing against Nnamdi Asomugha, Asante Samuel, and Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie should send a shock to the heart of every Redskins fan. Also, we all remember what Michael Vick did the last time he played in DC, right?
Philadelphia 24, Washington 21
Cleveland at Oakland
Darren McFadden leads one of the NFL’s best rushing attacks against a weak Cleveland Browns team that has played very poorly despite an easy schedule thus far (opponents have a 4-11 record in their games against other teams, three of their four games have been at home). The Browns’ defense is mediocre at best and their offense has struggled to move the ball. Oakland should win this handily and may be contenders for a playoff spot.
Oakland 27, Cleveland 17
Houston at Baltimore
The Texans have been hit hard by the injury bug just as they face a team that would’ve been difficult to beat even at full strength. Super Mario Williams is done for the season, it’s very unlikely that Andre Johnson plays, and although it appears Matt Schaub will start on Sunday, he’s certainly not 100%. The Ravens fearsome defense should do very well against this drastically weakened offense, and passing the ball will be much easier without Mario Williams breathing down Flacco’s neck.
Baltimore 27, Houston 17
Dallas at New England
This pick is tougher for me than it is for most, it seems. While the Patriots are clearly superior offensively, I think the Cowboys have an even greater edge on defense. Dallas has been the NFL’s best run defense thus far, allowing just 3.1 yards per carry and surrendering just one rushing touchdown. The Patriots are 21st in the NFL, allowing 1.5 more yards per carry than Dallas. Against the pass, Dallas allows 6.8 yards per attempt, 10th best in the league, and opponents have completed less than 58% of their passes. The Patriots allow 8.6 yards per attempt, second worst in the NFL, and have allowed opponents to complete over 65% of the passes. Despite this, I’m still going with New England. They are at home and in a tight game… I’ll take Tom Brady over Tony Romo.
New England 27, Dallas 24
New Orleans at Tampa Bay
New Orleans’ big weakness this year has been their run defense where they allow over 5 yards a carry. However, considering the Bucs will be without LeGarrette Blount and the likelihood that they’ll be playing from behind against a high-powered Saints offense, I don’t think this will be coming into play much. I am very disappointed in the play of Josh Freeman. I had expected him to take a step forward this year on the road to ultimately becoming an elite quarterback. Instead, he’s taken a step back. So far in 2011, he has just 3 touchdowns and 6 interceptions, matching his output from all of 2010. Let’s hope he’s still on that road to elite, and that the first third of this season was just a speed bump.
New Orleans 30, Tampa Bay 20
Minnesota at Chicago
Minnesota finally broke their ritual of giving up enormous leads by scoring four touchdowns in the first quarter of their game against Arizona and holding on for a 34-10 victory. Watching the Chicago Bears, it’s hard to believe this team won 11 games last year. Offensively, Matt Forte has played very well, but everything else has been borderline disastrous. No quarterback in the NFL has been sacked more than Jay Cutler. Even when he does get time to throw, the results have been mediocre at best. Though Minnesota has been just as bad offensively as Chicago has, if not worse, they have a clear advantage on defense, especially against the rush. The Vikings allow just 3.3 yards per carry, good for 5th best in the NFL, while the Bears allow a league worst 5.7 yards per carry. In a game with two teams who are forced to live by the run, that difference is huge.
Minnesota 24, Chicago 21
Matt Moore, avoid this man like the plague
Miami at New York Jets
For the most part, the Jets offense has been somewhat of a trainwreck. They cannot run the ball, averaging a putrid 3.3 yards per carry. The Sanchize has been underwhelming to say the least. Defensively, they’re in the bottom half of the league in yards per carry allowed and no team has given up more rushing touchdowns. Their one bright spot has been their reliably stout pass defense and it is the reason Miami has little to no shot at winning on Monday night. With Brandon Marshall castaway on Revis Island, the Dolphins will have to win by relying on Matt Moore throwing to Davone Bess and Brian Hartline. I wonder how Andrew Luck will look in aqua and coral.
New York Jets 27, Miami 14
Previous record: 50-27
