Buffalo, Miami, San Diego, Kansas City, Cleveland, Jacksonville, and Indianapolis have all been mathematically eliminated from playoff contention in the AFC. In the NFC, Philadelphia, Washington, Seattle, Arizona, St. Louis, Chicago, Minnesota, Carolina, and Tampa Bay have been eliminated.
Starting with the AFC, I’ll go over the playoff scenario for each team.
Tom Brady can lead the Patriots to the #1 seed in the AFC with a win on Sunday.
AFC
New England
For the Patriots it is pretty simple. They have already clinched a playoff berth and a first round bye. All they need to do is beat Buffalo at home, and they will clinch home field throughout regardless of what happens in the other games. However if they lose, they’ll have to hope for Baltimore and Pittsburgh both to lose to maintain the #1 seed in the AFC.
If they lose to Buffalo, and either Baltimore, Pittsburgh, or both win, New England will drop to the two seed.
New York Jets
The Jets really hurt themselves last week with a loss to the Giants. Had they defeated their cross town rivals, they could have clinched a spot in the playoffs with a win over the Dolphins on Sunday. Instead, they need a win over Miami and some help from other teams.
They need the Ravens to beat the Bengals, the Texans to beat the Titans, and either the Chiefs to beat the Broncos or the Chargers to beat the Raiders. All of those happening is possible, but pretty unlikely. Baltimore is still playing for a first round bye and possibly the #1 seed in the conference, so there is a good chance they are able to beat Cincinnati on the road.
But, Houston has already clinched the #3 seed in the playoffs regardless of what happens this weekend, so there is a good chance they rest a lot of their starters against the Titans. Kansas City and San Diego aren’t playing for anything while Denver and Oakland are still fighting for their playoff lives.
Denver
The Broncos have to shake off back-to-back big losses at the hands of New England and Buffalo. Even after those losses, they still control their own destiny for the AFC West Title. A win over the Chiefs and former QB Kyle Orton clinches the AFC West for Denver. If they lose, they could still back their way into the postseason with a San Diego win over Oakland.
The Broncos have no shot at the Wildcard with a loss on Sunday, so it’s AFC West Title or bust for Tim Tebow and Denver.
Oakland
Unlike Denver, there are a number of different scenarios that could put the Raiders in the playoffs, but they all hinge on Oakland beating San Diego at home. A loss would eliminate the Raiders from playoff contention.
To win the AFC West, the Raiders need a win and a Broncos loss. But, even if Denver wins, Oakland can still nab the final playoff spot. They get the 6th seed with a win, a Denver win, and losses by Tennessee and Cincinnati.
Baltimore
The AFC North Title is Baltimore’s with a win on Sunday or a Pittsburgh loss. A loss to Cincinnati and a Pittsburgh win over Cleveland would bump the Ravens from the 2-seed to the 5-seed. The Ravens can get homefield throughout with a win and a New England loss.
Pittsburgh
To win the division, Pittsburgh must beat Cleveland and have Baltimore fall to Cincinnati. A Baltimore win means the Steelers are the five-seed regardless of what happens in their game against the Browns.
A strong rookie season by Andy Dalton has the Bengals a win away from the playoffs.
Cincinnati
The sixth seed will belong to the Andy Dalton-led Bengals if they beat AFC North rival Baltimore on Sunday in Cincy. If they lose, they’ll need help. A loss and they will need the Dolphins to beat the Jets, and either a Raiders or Broncos loss. If they are tied at 9-7 with just the Titans, then the Bengals will make the playoffs based on their head-to-head victory over Tennessee.
The Bengals would not win the tiebreak over Oakland or New York, and would not make it in any three or four way tiebreaks.
Tennessee
For the Titans to make the playoffs, they have to beat Houston on Sunday, and hope for multiple team tiebreaks. If it is just them and Cincinnati tied at 9-7, then they would miss the playoffs based on an earlier season loss to the Bengals.
A three way tie between them, Cincinnati, and Oakland would put the Titans in the playoffs. They win the tiebreak with Oakland based on win percentage in common games, and over Tennessee based on win percentage in conference games. Add the Jets into that mix, and the Titans will be watching the playoffs from their couches.
Now, if KC beats Denver, then the Titans can make the playoffs in a three-way tie with New York and Cincinnati based on a higher win percentage than the Jets in common games, and a better win percentage than Cincinnati in conference games.
NFC
The Giants and Cowboys battle for the NFC East Title on Sunday.
New York Giants
It’s simple for the Giants. They beat Dallas on Sunday and they are the NFC East Champions, and the 4th seed in the playoffs. A loss, and New York misses the playoffs. They get Dallas at home, and beat the Cowboys just a few weeks ago in Jerry World in part thanks to Jason Garrett icing his own kicker in the final seconds.
Dallas
The same holds true for Dallas. The NFC East title is on the line when they travel to New York on Sunday. A win clinches the #4 spot in the NFC playoffs, and a loss would keep the ‘Boys out of the postseason for the second straight year.
San Francisco
The 49ers are currently sitting in the #2 seed heading into the final weekend of the regular season, and a win over the 2-13 Rams would give San Francisco a first round bye. If they lose to the lowly Rams on the road, they would still get the 2-seed if the Panthers defeat the Saints.
Green Bay
The Packers clinched homefield throughout by beating the Bears on Christmas Day.
Detroit
The Lions clinched a playoff berth last week with a resounding 38-10 win over the Chargers, knocking San Diego out of playoff contention in the process. Detroit can clinch the 5-seed by beating Green Bay in Lambeau. A win would guarantee a wildcard round matchup with the NFC East champion.
Usually, a trip to Green Bay would be a daunting task, but with the Packers having already clinched everything there is a pretty good chance that they rest starters. We will probably see Aaron Rodgers play a quarter or two before giving way to backup Matt Flynn, which gives Detroit a very good shot at winning and avoiding a first round matchup with New Orleans.
New Orleans
The Saints are currently the 3-seed, but could vault up to #2 and a first round bye with a win over Carolina and a San Francisco loss to St. Louis.
Atlanta
Even with a blowout loss at the hands of the Saints on Monday night, the Falcons clinched a playoff berth with Chicago and Dallas going down. They are currently the 6th seed, but could move up to the 5 with a win over the free-falling Buccaneers, and a Packers win over the Lions.
The Falcons should get it done against Tampa Bay, but smart money is on the Lions beating the Packers with most of Green Bay’s starters resting. If Atlanta gets the 6-seed, they are likely to end up back in New Orleans to take on the Saints in the Wildcard round.
