Ford:Arian FosterDespite missing three full games, Arian Foster was able to rack up 1,841 yards from scrimmage, good for 3rd best in the league. With a rookie quarterback, the Texans will likely be leaning heavily on Foster, as well as Ben Tate, who himself had over 1,000 yards from scrimmage. Against the Bengals in week 14, Foster rushed for just 41 yards on 15 carries and lost a fumble, easily his worst rushing performance of the year. The Texans were able to overcome his poor play that week, but it’s unlikely they’d be able to do so again. He needs to have a big game.
The Bengals need a strong performance from Andy Dalton to get past the Texans.
Mitchell: Andy Dalton
A big reason Cincinnati is in the playoffs is because Andy Dalton matured quickly and played very well in his rookie season. He completed 58% of his passes for 3,398 yards and 20 touchdowns to 13 interceptions. Dalton is going to need to be at his best against the NFL’s second ranked defense. Dalton was okay but unspectacular in Cincinnati’s loss to Houston earlier in the season. He’ll need to be on top of his game in Houston this time around to lead the Bengals to the Divisional Round. The Bengals had a lot of trouble running the ball in the first meeting, and they don’t figure to fair much better the second time around. They’ll need Dalton to throw the ball well to back Houston up off the line of scrimmage.
KEY POSITIONAL BATTLE: AJ Green vs. Jonathan Joseph
Ford: Houston’s pass defense improved dramatically in 2011, and Jonathan Joseph was a big part of it. The free agent acquisition more than earned his near-$50 million deal. While not a shutdown corner on the level of a Darrelle Revis, Joseph is one of the league’s best corners, routinely limiting his matchups to numbers well below their average, including A.J. Green. Green was held to 59 receiving yards, he averaged over 71 yards in his other 14 games, and no touchdowns. With Cincinnati’s lackluster rushing attack, A.J. Green will need to make some plays for the Bengals to win.
X-FACTOR: Turnovers
Mitchell: Turnovers almost cost the Texans the game in Cincinnati earlier in the season. Houston turned it over four times, one interception and three fumbles, and needed a last second touchdown pass from T.J. Yates to survive on the road. If they have similar problems taking care of the football this time around, they could be behind in the fourth quarter needing a similar game winning drive from a QB and a team in general full of players in their first playoff game. With two rookie QBs, we are bound to see some mistakes. This game will probably come down to which team limits them the most.
How will the Texans do in their first ever playoff game?
PREDICTIONS
Ford: Despite being down to their third string quarterback, I still like the Texans. If Schaub was healthy, they’d be my pick to represent the AFC in the Super Bowl. It looks like a longshot now with T.J. Yates, but I think he’s good enough to lead the Texans to a win this week. Cincinnati has a great defense, but their offense is weak. They’re in the bottom 10 of the league in both passing yards per attempt, 9th worst, and rushing yards per attempt, 6th worst. Cincinnati didn’t defeat a single playoff team in the regular season, and I doubt they’ll start now. PICK:Houston 20, Cincinnati 13Mitchell: I expect this to be a close game, but the Texans are the better team. They were able to beat Cincinnati despite turning the ball over four times in last month’s game. I don’t see the Texans turning the ball over that many times again. They ranked 2nd in the AFC this season in turnover differential at a +7. I think they won’t put too much on T.J. Yates and will rely on Arian Foster and Ben Tate running the ball. I think Houston’s opportunistic defense will force Andy Dalton into some mistakes, and Houston will ultimately come out on top. PICK: Houston 23, Cincinnati 17
